PolyPicks Documentation

Your complete guide to AI-powered prediction market analysis

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Getting Started What is PolyPicks?How It Works Key Features Analysis Tiers Analysis Features

Getting Started

What You Need

Modern browser: Chrome/Brave/Safari
Solana wallet: Phantom (recommended) or any Wallet Adapter-compatible wallet
Network: Solana Mainnet
Optional but powerful: $POLYPICKS tokens to unlock Deep Professional Analysis

Three Steps to Your First Insight

1
Connect Wallet (top-right) and approve in Phantom
2
Select Event from the home feed or search (politics, macro, tech, crypto). Events prioritize high liquidity and active trading from the Polymarket API
3
Click Analyze → review Edge Score, Confidence Tier, Catalyst Radar (1–14 days), and Suggested Bet Types. Optionally Save Market (local browser storage)

What You'll See on a Market Page

Price & Liquidity

Live odds, spread feel, depth snapshot, and resolution rules from Polymarket API

Edge Score (0–100)

Our view of potential mispricing vs. consensus

Confidence Tier

Safe / Speculative / Lottery (position-sizing hint)

Catalyst Radar

Dated events likely to move outcomes (1–14 days)

What is PolyPicks?

PolyPicks is an expert prediction-market analyst in your browser. It processes Polymarket orderbooks/prices (via the paid Polymarket API), plus sentiment, historical patterns, liquidity health, and catalyst proximity to surface early, favorable opportunities—complete with timing and sizing so you can act decisively.

Goal

Find viable trades before the crowd; cut hours of research to seconds

Scope

Polymarket-first; modular expansion possible

Style

Institutional-grade analysis, everyday usability, no accounts required

Data backbone: PolyPicks uses the paid Polymarket API as a primary source of truth for market metadata, orderbooks, prices, liquidity, and resolution criteria—so you see accurate, up-to-date information refreshed directly from Polymarket. Additional context layers (news, filings, narrative signals) sit on top of this baseline.

How It Works (3 Simple Steps)

Select Event

Browse curated, high-liquidity Polymarket events (politics, economics, crypto, tech). Each listing pulls live odds/metadata from the Polymarket API.

AI Analysis

We ingest current market data (Polymarket API), sentiment, historical look-alikes, liquidity, and event timing to detect asymmetry and risk.

Get Insights

You receive Confidence Scores, profit recommendations, risk assessment, and clear execution plans (entries, exits, ladders, hedges).

Key Features & Options

Polymarket-Backed Real-Time View

Live prices, spreads, depth, resolution details pulled from the paid Polymarket API for reliability and freshness.

Profit Opportunities

Specific, time-aware recommendations with a "why-now" rationale and position-sizing cues.

Confidence Scores

Factor model across liquidity, momentum, event proximity, narrative quality → simple Safe / Speculative / Lottery labels.

Smart Recommendations

Entry windows, exit targets, ladder schedules, hedge pairs, and risk controls for clean execution.

Deep Insights

Orderbook behavior (e.g., spread elasticity), volume patterns, and institutional-style tells to anticipate slippage or gapping.

Catalyst Radar (1–14 days)

Filings, votes, hearings, macro prints (CPI/jobs), debates, regulator calendars, court dockets—ranked by impact × proximity.

Analysis Tiers

Regular Analysis (available to all)

A concise Simple Summary including:

Best Bet for Profit & Most Likely Outcome
Specific Profit Opportunities with timing windows
Conviction Level & Reasons
Edge & Liquidity Assessment

Markets to Avoid (common traps)
Quick Scores (structure, catalysts, narrative, depth)
Final Confidence Score & Clear Recommendation

Premium / Deep Professional Analysis (wallet-gated)

For the full picture:

Alternative Scenarios & scenario triggers
Maker/flow reads based on orderbook structure
Historical Context (look-alike patterns)
External Factors & Catalyst Stacking

Detailed Execution Plan (entries/exits, ladder logic)
Monitoring Plan (what to watch next)
Risk Management (invalidation, drawdown guards)
Market Probabilities & Scenario Tree

Unlocking Deep Pro: Connect Phantom and hold ≥ 100,000 $POLYPICKS. The UI shows your wallet state and unlock banner inline (no account).

Analysis Features

A) Edge Score (0-100)

Composite measure of mispricing potential using Polymarket microstructure, catalyst density, and narrative momentum.

80-100: Strong Edge

Confirm catalysts; time entries precisely

60-79: Promising

Size moderately; ladder around catalysts

<60: Likely Efficient

Skip or micro-stake as learning/lottery play

B) Confidence Tier

✅ Safe

Clear thesis, reliable sources, sturdy depth, near catalysts

⚖️ Speculative

Known unknowns; asymmetry exists—be disciplined

🎲 Lottery

Tail outcomes—micro stakes only

C) Catalyst Radar (1-14 days)

Shows dated events with impact bands and suggested entry windows.

Large Impact: Major catalysts (CPI, Fed decisions, court rulings)
Medium Impact: Hearings, debates, regulatory announcements
Small Impact: Minor filings, routine updates

D) Suggested Bet Types

Time-Boxed

Enter/exit around a dated catalyst

Hedge & Hold

Pair legs/related markets to smooth variance

Ladder In/Out

Scale positions to reduce timing regret

Lottery Ticket

Tiny exposure to convex tails (explicitly labeled)

Wallet Connection (Phantom)

Connect

Click Connect Wallet → Phantom → approve

Why

Verify $POLYPICKS for premium gating and enable local saving on your device

Unlock Deep Pro

Hold ≥ 100,000 $POLYPICKS to enable Premium/Deep Professional Analysis

No accounts, no notifications, no email. Everything runs client-side with wallet presence and the Polymarket/analysis backends.

Common Fixes

Enable pop-ups, refresh, and retry
Ensure Solana Mainnet is active
If you hold $POLYPICKS in another wallet, switch accounts or transfer
If you just moved tokens, wait ~1–2 minutes, then tap Resync Holdings on the banner

Token Requirements (No-Account Gating)

🆓

Free Tier

Browse events
Quick Look (rate-limited)
Delayed Edge previews
Local Saved Markets

Regular (Connected Wallet)

Full Regular Analysis UI
Real-time Edge Scores
Confidence Tiers
Basic Catalyst Radar

Premium (≥ 100,000 $POLYPICKS)

Complete Deep Analysis pipeline
Alternative Scenarios
Execution/Monitoring Plans
Expanded Radar details
Redacted Analyst Notes

Your unlock status is shown in-page - no account area exists. Connect your wallet to see your current tier.

Best Practices & Safety

Size by Tier

Never invert the risk hierarchy:

• Safe: Largest positions
• Speculative: Medium positions
• Lottery: Smallest positions

Time Entries Around Catalysts

Respect pre/post-event spread changes. Enter 24-48h before major catalysts when possible.

Laddering Helps

Scale in/out to reduce timing error and headline risk. Don't put all capital in at once.

Re-Run Before Acting

Make sure Polymarket data and catalysts are fresh before making trades.

⚠️ Read Resolution Criteria

If wording is ambiguous, size smaller. Understanding exactly how a market resolves is crucial.

FAQ (No-Account, Polymarket-Backed)

Is this financial advice?

No. PolyPicks is research tooling. Markets carry risk. Use sizing rules.

Do you override odds?

No. Live odds, spreads, and depth come from the paid Polymarket API and are treated as the baseline. PolyPicks highlights where/why mispricing may exist.

How fresh is your data?

Polymarket prices, depth, and metadata are pulled directly from the paid Polymarket API. Re-Run to refresh on demand; the Radar window focuses on the next 1–14 days.

Why are some sources redacted?

We protect the proprietary stack while giving you enough to act confidently.

Can I export or share?

Yes—copy a redacted summary link (when available) or keep it private. Saved Markets are local to your browser.

Do I need $POLYPICKS?

Not for browsing and Quick Look. Yes (≥ 100,000 $POLYPICKS) for Deep Professional Analysis.

Do I need an account?

No. There are no accounts and no notifications. Your Saved Markets are stored locally.

Troubleshooting

Wallet Won't Connect

Refresh and reopen Phantom; enable pop-ups
Temporarily disable other wallet extensions
Ensure Solana Mainnet is selected

"Insufficient Tokens" But I Hold $POLYPICKS

Tap Resync Holdings (in-page)
Confirm the connected wallet is the one holding $POLYPICKS
Wait ~1–2 minutes after transfers, then resync

Analysis Feels Slow

Use Quick Look to triage first
Run Deep Analysis when you're ready for the full picture

Edge Score Looks Off

Check Radar timestamps—a catalyst may have resolved
Hit Re-Run and compare the updated summary

How PolyPicks Works

High-Level Overview: We'll explain what matters without handing over the recipe. The following is true in spirit and designed to deter clones.

Core Inputs

Polymarket (Paid API)

Market metadata, odds, spreads, orderbook depth, resolution criteria, expiry—our real-time baseline

On-Chain Signals

Liquidity health, depth shifts, large-holder tripwires (indexer-verified)

Official Calendars & Filings

Regulator timetables, macro prints, court dockets, EDGAR/SEDAR windows, debate schedules

News & Narratives

High-reputation wires, vetted journalists, topic clusters scored for credibility, recency, velocity

Signal Pipeline

Orderbook Lens

Detects spread elasticity, depth asymmetry, and cliff risk around events (Polymarket-first)

Catalyst Engine

Merges calendars/filings; scores likelihood × proximity × impact with decay and stacking effects

Narrative Pressure Index

Topic embeddings with velocity/variance guards to down-rank brigades and hype cycles

LLM Ensemble ("Tri-Chamber")

Judge

Deterministic, filings-first analyst

Scout

Price-narrative mismatch hunter

Editor

Compresses into crisp, sourced summaries

TL;DR: Polymarket truth → (structure + catalysts + credible narrative) → Score, Tier, Plan.

Example Use Cases

Macro Print (CPI) Market

Scenario: Radar shows CPI in 72h; Polymarket depth is firm; narrative heating.

Action: Edge 82 (Safe) → Time-Boxed entry 24–48h pre-print; ladder exits across release + 30m window.

Policy Vote with Thin Liquidity

Scenario: Conflicting narratives, fragile depth.

Action: Edge 64 (Speculative) → Ladder In, add an exit plan pre-vote; keep sizes conservative.

Long-Tail Tech Outcome

Scenario: Sparse catalysts for weeks.

Action: Edge 54 (Lottery) → micro-stake only; re-run when Radar adds a new docket.